Eric Tang's Blog

Startups, Software, Everything Wildcard

Swing Trading on CoinZeus.io – Tools and Tips You Should Know

Swing Trading on CoinZeus.io – Tools and Tips You Should Know is an essential guide for traders looking to maximize their profits through effective strategies in the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or a beginner, understanding the nuances of swing trading on crypto exchanges can elevate your trading game. This blog post will delve into the intricacies of swing trading on CoinZeus.io, providing you with valuable tools, practical tips, and insights that can help you navigate the market with confidence.

Introduction to Swing Trading on CoinZeus.io

Swing trading is a popular style of trading that focuses on capturing short- to medium-term price movements in various assets, including cryptocurrencies. Unlike day trading, which often involves making multiple trades within a single day, swing trading typically spans several days to weeks. This approach allows traders to capitalize on price fluctuations without the pressure of constant monitoring.

When it comes to swing trading on CoinZeus.io, a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform, traders have access to a wide range of features and tools designed to facilitate successful trading experiences. Understanding how to effectively use these resources can significantly enhance your potential for success.

The Basics of Swing Trading

Swing trading is all about identifying opportunities for profit by analyzing price swings in the market. Traders look for patterns and trends that signal when to enter or exit a position. The primary goal is to catch a significant portion of a price move, allowing traders to profit from both upward and downward trends.

At its core, swing trading requires a solid understanding of technical analysis. This includes studying price charts, identifying support and resistance levels, and recognizing chart patterns. Additionally, swing traders must stay informed about market news and events that could impact cryptocurrency prices.

The Appeal of Swing Trading

One of the main attractions of swing trading is the ability to take advantage of price volatility without the need for constant screen time. Many traders appreciate the flexibility swing trading offers, allowing them to maintain full-time jobs or pursue other interests while still participating in the markets.

Moreover, swing trading can be less stressful than day trading. Instead of making quick decisions under pressure, swing traders can take their time to analyze trends and make informed choices. This can lead to more thoughtful trading and ultimately better results.

Getting Started with CoinZeus.io

CoinZeus.io provides an intuitive platform for swing traders, featuring user-friendly tools that simplify the trading experience. To get started, it’s essential to create an account on CoinZeus.io, deposit funds, and familiarize yourself with the platform’s interface. By leveraging the resources available to you, you can set the stage for a successful swing trading journey.

Essential Tools for Swing Trading Success

To succeed in swing trading, having the right tools at your disposal is crucial. CoinZeus.io offers a variety of features that can help traders make informed decisions and optimize their trading strategies. From charting software to market analysis tools, understanding how to utilize these resources is key to achieving consistent profits.

Charting Software

Effective swing trading relies heavily on thorough technical analysis, which is made possible through advanced charting software. CoinZeus.io provides comprehensive charting capabilities that allow traders to visualize price movements over different periods.

A good charting tool will enable you to apply various technical indicators and overlays, allowing you to identify trends, reversals, and potential entry and exit points. Familiarizing yourself with the charting features on CoinZeus.io can help you gain deeper insights into market dynamics.

Market Analysis Tools

In addition to charting software, market analysis tools are essential for swing traders. These tools provide data and insights on market conditions, helping traders make educated decisions.

On CoinZeus.io, you can access real-time market data, news feeds, and sentiment analysis to gain a better understanding of current market trends. Staying up to date with relevant news can also help you anticipate potential price movements.

Trading Bots and Automation

Trading bots can be invaluable for swing traders looking to enhance their performance. CoinZeus.io supports trading automation, allowing users to set parameters for automated trading based on specific criteria.

By utilizing trading bots, traders can execute trades even when they’re not actively monitoring the market. However, it’s essential to understand how to configure these bots correctly to avoid unintended consequences.

Top Tips for Effective Swing Trading

While having the right tools is important, implementing effective strategies is equally vital for successful swing trading. Here are some top tips that can help you sharpen your skills and improve your trading outcomes.

Develop a Solid Trading Plan

One of the first steps to successful swing trading is formulating a well-defined trading plan. A trading plan outlines your goals, risk tolerance, and strategies for entering and exiting trades.

Having a clear plan helps prevent emotional decision-making, enabling you to stick to your strategy even during volatile market conditions. Regularly reviewing and adjusting your trading plan based on performance and market changes can further enhance your results.

Focus on Quality Over Quantity

In swing trading, it’s vital to prioritize quality trades rather than overwhelming yourself with numerous positions. Focus on high-probability setups that align with your trading strategy.

Avoid the temptation to chase after every potential trade opportunity; instead, wait for the right conditions and signals that indicate a higher likelihood of profit. This disciplined approach can ultimately lead to more successful trades and minimized losses.

Keep Emotions in Check

Emotional control is a critical component of successful trading. Fear and greed can lead to impulsive decisions, causing traders to deviate from their plans.

Practicing mindfulness and maintaining a rational mindset can help manage emotions while trading. It’s also helpful to establish rules for yourself regarding trade management, such as predetermined stop-loss limits and profit targets.

Understanding Market Trends with CoinZeus.io

To excel in swing trading, it’s essential to grasp the concept of market trends and how they influence price movements. CoinZeus.io offers various tools for analyzing market trends, allowing traders to make informed decisions based on prevailing conditions.

Identifying Uptrends and Downtrends

An uptrend is characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating bullish sentiment in the market. Conversely, a downtrend consists of lower highs and lower lows, signaling bearish conditions.

Utilizing trendlines on CoinZeus.io can help you visualize and identify these trends. Breaking down price action into distinct phases can help you determine whether to go long or short on a particular asset.

Utilizing Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels play a pivotal role in swing trading. Support refers to a price level where buying interest tends to overcome selling pressure, while resistance marks a level where selling interest prevails.

CoinZeus.io enables traders to mark these levels on charts, allowing for strategic planning of entry and exit points. Understanding where these levels lie can also help you avoid traps and ensure that you only enter trades when the conditions are favorable.

Trend Reversals and Continuations

Recognizing potential trend reversals and continuation patterns can significantly enhance a trader’s ability to capitalize on price swings. Various chart patterns, such as head and shoulders, double tops, and triangles, can signal impending changes in market direction.

Observing volume alongside price movements on CoinZeus.io can also provide valuable clues about potential reversals. Increased volume during a breakout, for example, may indicate confirmation of a new trend.

Risk Management Strategies in Swing Trading

Risk management is a fundamental aspect of any successful trading strategy. In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, managing risk is vital to preserving capital and ensuring longevity in the market.

Setting Stop-Loss Orders

Implementing stop-loss orders is one of the most effective ways to manage risk in swing trading. A stop-loss order automatically closes a position once it reaches a predetermined price level, limiting potential losses.

On CoinZeus.io, traders can easily set stop-loss orders when placing trades. Establishing stop-loss levels based on support and resistance can help safeguard against significant market downturns.

Position Sizing and Leverage

Determining the appropriate position size for each trade is crucial for risk management. Avoid risking too much of your capital on a single trade by calculating position sizes relative to your overall account balance.

Additionally, if you choose to utilize leverage, be mindful of the increased risks associated with it. While leverage can amplify gains, it can also magnify losses, so it’s essential to use it judiciously and within your risk tolerance.

Diversification of Portfolio

Diversifying your trading portfolio can reduce risk exposure across various assets and minimize losses. Rather than concentrating on a single cryptocurrency, consider spreading your investments across multiple coins or tokens.

CoinZeus.io offers a wide variety of trading pairs, making it easier for you to explore diversification options. Balancing your portfolio can help smooth out volatility and increase your chances for overall profitability.

Analyzing Chart Patterns for Better Trades

Chart patterns serve as visual representations of price movements and can provide valuable insights into future price behavior. Mastering the art of analyzing chart patterns can significantly elevate your swing trading game.

Recognizing Common Patterns

Familiarizing yourself with common chart patterns is essential for effective swing trading. Some popular patterns include head and shoulders, flags, pennants, and wedges.

Each pattern carries unique implications for price movement and can help traders anticipate potential breakouts or reversals. Learning how to recognize these patterns on CoinZeus.io charts can provide a competitive edge in your trading strategy.

Measuring Price Targets

Once you’ve identified a chart pattern and its potential implications, it’s important to measure price targets. Chart patterns can often provide insight into possible future price movements, allowing traders to set realistic profit targets.

Using technical analysis tools available on CoinZeus.io, you can calculate price targets based on the height of the pattern or previous price swings. Establishing clear price targets can also aid in determining your exit strategy.

Combining Patterns with Indicators

Combining chart patterns with technical indicators can further enhance your analysis. For instance, using moving averages alongside chart patterns can confirm trends or signal potential reversals.

Experimenting with different combinations of indicators and patterns on CoinZeus.io can help refine your trading strategy and increase your chances of successful trades.

Using Technical Indicators on CoinZeus.io

Technical indicators are essential tools that can complement your swing trading strategy. On CoinZeus.io, a plethora of indicators are available to assist traders in analyzing market conditions.

Moving Averages

Moving averages are widely used in swing trading to identify trends and potential entry/exit points. The two most common types are the simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA).

Traders often use crossovers between short-term and long-term moving averages to signal potential buy or sell opportunities. By integrating moving averages into your analysis on CoinZeus.io, you can gain valuable insights into market trends.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100 and is primarily used to identify overbought or oversold conditions.

When the RSI approaches extremes (above 70 for overbought, below 30 for oversold), it can indicate potential reversal points. Incorporating RSI analysis into your trades on CoinZeus.io can help inform your decisions and optimize timing.

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is another powerful tool for swing traders. It consists of two moving averages and a histogram, allowing traders to gauge momentum and potential trend changes.

Crossovers of the MACD line and the signal line can signal possible buy or sell opportunities. Using MACD on CoinZeus.io adds another layer of analysis to your trading strategy.

Setting Up Alerts and Notifications

Setting up alerts and notifications on CoinZeus.io can greatly enhance your trading effectiveness. By receiving timely updates on price movements and market conditions, you can respond quickly to changing circumstances.

Price Alerts

Price alerts allow traders to stay informed about significant price changes for specific cryptocurrencies. By setting alerts for certain price levels, you can act quickly when your target conditions are met.

This feature can be particularly valuable for swing traders who may not be able to monitor the market constantly. Price alerts help ensure you never miss a profitable trade opportunity.

News and Event Notifications

Staying updated on relevant news and events is crucial for swing traders. CoinZeus.io provides options to receive notifications related to market developments, economic releases, and other significant occurrences that could impact cryptocurrency prices.

Being aware of upcoming events and news can help you adjust your trading strategy accordingly and potentially avoid unnecessary losses.

Customizable Alerts

CoinZeus.io allows traders to customize alerts based on their preferences. Whether you prefer alerts based on technical indicators or specific chart patterns, tailoring notifications to suit your trading style can optimize your experience.

By remaining proactive with your alerts, you can ensure that you’re always prepared to react to market shifts, enhancing your swing trading performance.

Common Mistakes to Avoid in Swing Trading

Even experienced traders can fall victim to common pitfalls when swing trading. By understanding these mistakes, you can better prepare yourself to avoid them and enhance your trading success.

Overtrading

Overtrading is a prevalent issue in swing trading, often stemming from impatience or fear of missing out (FOMO). Taking on too many positions can lead to poor decision-making and diminished returns.

It’s essential to focus on quality trades that align with your strategy rather than jumping into every opportunity. Adhering to your trading plan can mitigate the urge to overtrade.

Ignoring Risk Management

Neglecting risk management can be detrimental to any trading strategy. Failing to implement stop-loss orders or exceeding your risk tolerance can result in devastating losses.

Always prioritize risk management in your trading approach. Establishing clear rules for trade size, stop-loss levels, and profit targets is crucial for long-term success.

Lack of Discipline

Discipline is a cornerstone of successful swing trading. Emotion-driven decisions can lead to rash actions that deviate from your trading plan.

Maintaining discipline in executing your strategy and following through with your trading plan can help you navigate the ups and downs of the market more effectively.

Case Studies: Successful Swing Trades on CoinZeus.io

Examining real-life examples of successful swing trades can provide valuable insights into effective strategies. Let’s explore some case studies of notable swing trades executed on CoinZeus.io.

Case Study 1: Riding a Bullish Trend

In this scenario, a trader identified a strong bullish trend in a particular cryptocurrency on CoinZeus.io. By analyzing price movements and confirming the trend with technical indicators like MACD and RSI, the trader entered a long position.

As the price continued to rise, the trader consistently moved their stop-loss order up to lock in profits. Eventually, the trader exited the position upon reaching a predefined resistance level, securing substantial gains.

Case Study 2: Capitalizing on a Price Reversal

In this case study, a trader identified a classic head-and-shoulders pattern on CoinZeus.io, signaling a potential price reversal. After confirming the pattern with volume analysis, the trader set a short position with a stop-loss above the neckline of the formation.

As the price declined, the trader remained disciplined and adjusted their stop-loss to protect profits. Ultimately, the trader exited the position before the price began to consolidate, reaping significant rewards.

Case Study 3: Leveraging News Events

For this case study, a trader closely monitored news events impacting a specific cryptocurrency. Upon learning about an upcoming partnership announcement, the trader anticipated positive market reaction and initiated a long position on CoinZeus.io.

As expected, the price surged following the announcement. The trader wisely set a trailing stop-loss to capture profits while allowing room for further price appreciation. Eventually, the trader exited the position at a major resistance level, maximizing earnings.

Conclusion

Swing Trading on CoinZeus.io – Tools and Tips You Should Know provides traders with a comprehensive overview of effective strategies, techniques, and insights that can elevate their trading performance in the realm of cryptocurrencies. By understanding the tools available on CoinZeus.io, implementing sound risk management practices, and avoiding common pitfalls, you can navigate the ever-changing market landscape with confidence.

Ultimately, swing trading requires ongoing learning, practice, and adaptability. By continually refining your skills and strategies, you can unlock your potential for success on CoinZeus.io and beyond. Happy trading!

Algorithms, Design, Humans, Wildcard

Today we are happy to announce Wildcard 2.0 is officially in the iOS appstore. The new Wildcard is the best news reader on the iphone, done through a combination of smart algorithms, good design, and a team of amazing editors. The past 7 months has been a process of constant iteration, and the new Wildcard shows a glimpse of our vision to the future of mobile media consumption.

When we started down the path of creating Wildcard 2.0, we thought along three different axis – speed, content coverage and personalization. A lot of design and engineering thoughts went into this, this post will cover some of our technical considerations.

Speed

The smart phone is fantastic. It’s a powerful computer attached to you 24/7. But this incredible accessibility is often limited by software. On average, it takes many times longer to read and understand a topic on the phone than on the desktop. It is quite ironic, that you would ever have to sift through web search results on your phone to find a piece of news.

We approached the speed problem from a fundamental level. Inside Wildcard, every piece of information is organized as a mobile card, which is somewhere between a tweet and a webpage. It is a small unit of content that captures a single use case – whether it’s an image, a video, or a summary and a link to an article. With the combination of a novel random forrest based card creation system (which I will write about in a separate post) and a card-based search engine, we have created what we call “the internet of cards” (IOC). Free from the shackles of the legacy web stack like HTML, CSS and Javascript rendering, mobile cards are represented with structured data and rendered natively. This nice property of mobile cards means we can truly deliver content with incredible speed, and natively change the presentation to any platform, whether it’s iOS, Android, FB, Twitter, or any smartwatch.

Understanding Design Culture

Understanding Design Culture
Understanding Design Culture

A few weeks ago, I attended a discussion panel about building design culture with Khoi Vinh from Wildcard and Pierre Valade from Sunrise. They are both designers I respect and admire tremendously, and I was surprised by the astonishing difference in their design processes. With so many variables in practice of design, how can we, as founders, try to build a design culture?

“Design is everything engineers don’t do.” — Khoi Vinh

“Design is everything, it’s how we solve problems.” — Pierre Valade

These quotes are much broader than the traditional understanding of design. It touches every corner of a company, and it requires a culture with tremendous empathy and understanding of the design process. So, to me, good design culture means everyone in the company has a certain level of understanding and appreciation of the design process. This is especially difficult to adopt, because shifting the mentality for a group of people takes time and consistent effort.

Design is having ridiculously high standard for product experience. Design is going above and beyond to delight users. Design is being obsessive about every little detail. Design requires numerous iterations and relaxed time constraints.

Predictability of shipping date goes down dramatically when the standard of design goes up. This means engineering needs to understand that 29 out of the 30 prototypes will not ship. This means marketing and PR needs to understand the marketing plan may start 2 months after the initial planned date. This means product needs to understand that design will gather information, get inspired from unconventional processes that sometimes seems like they are “wasting time”. And our job as a founders is to make sure we create enough space to make that happen.

One cannot simply build a design culture without having first-class design DNA. You can’t fake design culture by hosting the occasional customer interviews or getting employee passes to photography exhibits. Design culture is a commitment to the art and the process, and the first step to that commitment is to work with designers who REALLY knows what they are doing.

If you are just starting out with this process, there WILL be a period of time of learning to understanding where the lines are. I have been fortunate enough to work with some talented designers over the years, and here are a few things I have learned:

  • Things WILL get thrown away. Figure out how to build CHEAP prototypes.
  • The design process requires TIME and INSPIRATION. Sometimes it means browsing Dribbble for an afternoon, sometimes it means working in complete isolation for a few days.
  • Don’t expect to validate everything in mockup form. A lot of times (especially for consumer products), you just have to play with the product.
  • Subtle things REALLY matter. Things like typography make a big difference.
  • Over-communicate, try to define a very clear goal at the beginning.
  • Know that design is a never-ending process, sometimes things cannot be measured by metrics.

If you are not a designer, what other things have you learned working with a design team? If you are a designer, what other things do you wish your counter parts would understand?

The Age of Mobile Integration

The Age of Mobile Integration
The Age of Mobile Integration

When Tim Berners-Lee created the hypertext (think web links) at CERN in 1989, he forever changed how the internet worked by creating connections between resources. The simple concept of open and sharable references means web experiences can be integrated together in an infinite possibility. Thus the web, from its birth, promotes integration. Mobile (at least the version we know today), on the other hand, was conceived without that concept. This fundamental difference has been one of the biggest limiting factors in the mobile ecosystem for the past 6 years.

Information on the web is open. A large portion of information is openly available, another large portion is hidden behind login walls, but fairly easily accessible. Information is passed around between web apps through plugins, widgets, async apis, links, and many other formats. Information in the mobile world is locked up inside apps. There is a very high threshold for app download, and the majority of the apps on phones don’t get opened. Push notifications are used largely as a triggering mechanism rather than an unit of consumable information. SDKs are generally action-based instead of information-based. This makes the majority of mobile experiences inaccessible to users.

On the web, there are many ways we can discover new content, whether it’s through search, curation, social, or any other mechanism. This is because links on the web are open, and the “control” lowers percieved switching cost. On mobile, there are no good ways to discover new content. App search is notoriously bad, and apps are generally not created with broad discoverability in mind. Social platforms tend to keep people on the platforms, which causes the problem of “hit-and-leave” for content publishers. There is no equivalence of “just browsing the web” in the mobile app world, and hence, users lose the ability to casually discover new experiences.

The lack of accessibility and discoverability is further worsened by the lack of communication between apps. Due to OS restrictions, apps live in very controlled sandboxes. Even with the recent development in deeplinking and app plugins, we haven’t seen information passed between apps in a meaningful way except for a few very specific use cases. The “app constellation” model remains unattainable for most developers. There lacks a communication pipe so that apps are aware of other apps, and there lacks a mechanism for apps to define an “embedded experience” inside other apps.

We all know that mobile doesn’t live on a single device. We live in a multi-device world and the devices are in different environments. Environments are important because their refer contexts and the underlining expectations of users. Other than large companies with proprietary homegrown solutions, most apps are not aware of other environments, and have no easy way to communicate between environments. With the upcoming smart watches and internet of things, communication in a multi-device world is a huge opportunity. Cross device experiences like iMessage is and inspiration for thinking about a user as she is using a service.

In the app-centric world, experiences largely live in silos. The switching cost between apps is high, and the poor navigability of the OS makes information inaccessible. It’s quite ironic that the highly accessible hardware (you can take the phone out of your pocket at anytime) is coupled with an inaccessible software layer. Comparing to the ease of information flow in the desktop environment, smartphones don’t come close. We are handicapped by legacy technology layers and OS-layer restrictions to take full advantage of the internet infrstrcutured built up over the last 20 years. The rigid programming paradigms make development slower and more costly. The lack of access to low-level functionality limits the programmer’s ability to innovate. The existing legacy web makes re-designing for a small screen extremely difficult.

With so many problems in the mobile software layer, many companies (include Wildcard – the company I helped to start) are working on new solutions. Mobile cards, deeplinks, various SDKs for identity management, mobile payment are all solutions that give mobile apps new super powers. With the base layer established and many interesting use cases explored, here comes the age of mobile integration.

The Dirty Secret of 10x Engineers

There is a mantra in the startup world – “we only hire 10x engineers”. This is exactly the arrogant, bullshit attitude that turns your company into a fear-driven, political and unproductive place to work. Nobody is consistently a 10x engineer. Here is why:

If someone constantly works at a rate 10 times more productive than the average engineer, this person is an expert who has stopped challenging himself. This could be due to a variety of reasons, but trust me, the smartest engineers got there by constantly challenging themselves and learning new stuff.

In flow theory, the “flow state” is when the right amount of expertise and right amount of challenge intersect. This is a rare occurrence when you are productive at your highest potential. This is your “10x” state. Everyone can have this 10x state. (for more, read this post by Jeff Dickey)

However, almost by default, you are rarely in the flow state when you are working at a startup. Startups work on problems that have not been solved, and they are usually extremely challenging. You should have enough basic understanding in related topics to gain the expertise, but rarely do you already have the expertise. (Already having the expertise would mean you are working on the exact same problem as the one you solved before, and we have a much bigger problem here)

The mode of operation is usually something like this:

  • Hit your head against the wall for a few days
  • Search google, email friends, read papers / books
  • Prototype a few different solutions, realize they are all flawed
  • Cold email experts in the field (or get introduced by friends), set up coffee/skype meetings
  • Build new prototype with newly gained knowledge
  • Repeat

This process is filled with learning new tools, new terminologies and new ways of thinking. None of this qualifies for the prerequisite of operating at your 10x state.

Will you eventually learn all the things you need to learn to be productive? Of course. But that’s usually short-lived. You will get to be 10x when you are building the last prototype (which will grow into the real product). At this point you are so knowledgable in this particular topic that it takes you 10% of the time compare to the first prototype. This is your 10x state.

At this point, you realize the problem you solved is just one piece of the 3000 piece Seurat Sunday Afternoon Jigsaw Puzzle Now you have to move on to the next problem. And the seemingly never-ending death cycle of prototyping starts all over again. Oh by the way, you have to somehow magically align this effort with timeline on the business side, figure out a reasonable deployment strategy, manage your AWS instances, find time to see your boy/girlfriend, etc.

But there is a silver lining here. The more you go through this process, the better you get at navigating the unknown. You learn to use the right tools, you learn resources to look for, you meet other smart people, and most importantly, you learn to look at a unknown problem from an inventor’s eye. All of the experiences you’ve learned will increase your chances of entering your 10x state, and soon people will start calling you a 10x engineer. But you won’t let that get to your head, because now you know too much to know that you can’t possibly know it all.

So this is OUR mantra at Wildcard – “We hire ridiculously intelligent people and challenge them to constantly get better”. We are working on problems no one has solved, and we will constantly push ourselves to learn new things. May we never become 10x engineers.

Wildcard

5 months ago, Jordan, Doug and I sat in Doug’s living room in San Francisco for a week, talking about the mobile web and our visions of what it should be. It was an exciting week. Github account was created, AWS machines provisioned, and sketches were drawn.

We were all fed up with the current state of the mobile internet. It is an ecosystem plagued by terrible user experiences and little-to-no common practices. Users are left to their own devices and businesses lost precious opportunities. So we set out to change all that. Our goals are ambitious, our problems are hairy, and on top of that we decided to bootstrap, which means resources are scarce.

Taken from frothingslosh
Taken from frothingslosh

In the subsequent months, we moved back to New York, got a few desks at a co-working space (thanks to Lerer Ventures), and went to work. To better understand the problem, we talked to the smartest people we know, and created prototype after prototype.

We are still in the thick of it – changing the mobile web on a fundamental and infrastructural level is no easy task. It’s one of those rare projects that sit at the borderline between a completely crazy idea and a huge opportunity. This type of projects need time and a massive amount of effort. We will create infrastructure that the mobile web lacks today, we will create new modes for people to interact with “the internet” on the go, and we will invent new ways for businesses to reach their customers. The difference between now and 5 months ago is that now we have $3 million bucks, a few awesome new additions to the team, new prototypes to play with, and a new company name.

Our new company is called Wildcard. Jordan describes it well in his blog post about what we are up to, and Doug has posted about some technical problems we are working on.

Drop me a line if you want to learn more, or sign up for early access to the future by putting your email in the sign up form.

Where Is My Robot Scientist?

Shot from the Movie AI

Mass production is something that most of us take for granted today. We enjoy the effect of it everyday but rarely think about the dramatic change it has brought to the world. Almost everything we buy today is mass produced.

One thing that’s never been able to be mass-produced is ideas. An idea can be a song, a piece of writing, a software program, or a business plan. The process of idea creation is a personal experience that requires creativity and complex thinking. It seems impossible for machines and science to create ideas like we can.

But times have changed since the day of mechanical, dumb machines that can only handle simple tasks. Recent advancements in AI and data science are giving us signs of truly “intelligent” machines, capable of mass-producing original ideas. How exactly can we do it? To answer this question, we have to understand:

  • Fundamental pieces of a mass-production system
  • Categories of ideas in the world.

Mass Production System

It’s fairly straight-forward to understand a mass-production system. People have been studying and improving it for centuries, ever since the industrial revolution (one can argue it started a lot earlier than that, but you get the point). Such systems usually involve

  • Supply chain to gather raw materials
  • Transformation process to change raw materials into generally useful, multi-purpose forms
  • Assembly lines that assemble small pieces into functional units, again, usually multi-purpose
  • Assembly lines that assemble functional units into final products
  • Quality assurance in each step

There are also distribution and fulfillment systems, but let’s focus on the creation process for now.

Categories of Ideas

Categorizing all ideas in the world is much harder. One can turn to cosmology or epistemology, but that tends to get philosophical pretty quickly. It gets even more confusing when the categories of ideas itself is an idea (hmm… did somebody say M.C Escher?) But for arguments sake, let’s group ideas into:

  • Metaphysical ideas (music, modern art – ideas for ideas sake)
  • Worldly ideas (journalism, a business plan, a piece of computer program – ideas rooted in the physical world)

Mass Producing Ideas

To imagine a mass production system for metaphysical ideas, let’s think about music. Notes/sound are the raw materials. Rhythm, riffs, choruses, movements are the small, functional units. Songs are the final products. The brute-force approach would be generating an infinite number of rhythms, riffs, choruses, create all permutation of these elements and listen to every generated song to find the ones you like. But that would take an infinite amount of time.

The key here is quality control. At each step, we identify the “quality” we care about, and create a filter to only let through what we care about. Machine learning technology can already learn “styles” of music. Rules can be created to structure pieces of music into songs, and music analytics engines + recommendation algorithms can analyze them to determine if you will like the music.

Worldly ideas on the other hand, are harder to create. There are many constraints that are hard to capture using mathematics / rules. How can we generate a piece of original news article? What about a business plan to solve a real-world problem? It seems that we have to teach machines to “understand” the real world before we can generate “analysis” from it.

But short of creating original worldly ideas, we can create derivatives of existing ideas. With sufficient data, machines can “learn” from existing ideas and create similar ideas or other forms of the same ideas. The process varies depending on the algorithm, but usually statistical analysis and natural language processing is involved. For example, text analysis engines like the SRI Internaional are able to take existing text and create short summaries from them. Diagnostic engines are able to use patient data and symptoms to create diagnosis.

Conclusion

The goal of mass production is a very simple economic principle: dramatic reduction on cost and dramatic increase on supply. We are still far away from creating music as good as Bach, or generating news reports worthy of the New York Times, but technologies that create ideas have fundamental impacts on society.

With SRI’s text summary technology, it now takes 10% of the time it did before to achieve the same breath in the past, which means it increased our reading speed by 1000%. Electronic music lowers the bar for music production by eliminating the necessity of learning to play musical instruments (biggest hurdle of music creation). The amount of new electronic music changed the fundamentals of the publishing side of the music industry. Companies like Game Salad try to lower the threshold for creating games, and the effect has been the commoditization of game creation. With the same level resources, my friends are way more likely to create games I want to play than Zanga ever will.

Technology is at a point to challenge the traditional method of idea creation. With the right application, we will be able to create more new ideas than ever before. And maybe one day, we will have a robot scientist making things for us.

Intent and the Internet

I’ve been thinking about intent lately. In the world of “big data”, “sentiment analysis”, “behavioral marketing” (blah blah blah…), “we use intent to drive user behavior change” is the party line. It’s a shame that “driving intent” is this black box that “our data scientists created” and no one else understands it. What does it really mean in the context of the internet we live in today?

To Lay the Ground Work

On the most fundamental level, every small action we do on a webpage is triggered by an intent. These are not “want to buy a car”, “want babies” intent. These are more like “click on name link”, “navigate to home page”, “sign up”, etc. Micro-view, super short-term, knee-jerk reaction type of stuff. From that we can define an “Intent” as “the desire of performing an action”, which really is the action itself + some meta data (like time, location, etc).

Now that’s quite a simplistic and lower-value view of Intents. What people really want is to derive “insights” from “intents”, which are the more “meta” intents people talk about in the advertising world (“want to buy a BMW”, “want to go to Daft Punk concert”, etc).

Let’s call the more insightful intents “meta-intents”, and the lower-level, action-representations “simple-intents”.

The Problem Of Predicting Intent

So what does it take to arrive at the “meta-intents” from a bunch of recorded “simple-intents”? When we translate it to “data science” terms, the question becomes “Given a series of prior simple actions, how likely is it for a person to take a particular action I care about in the immediate future?”

Statisticians have long studied this problem. Countless research studies have been conducted, ranging from brand loyalty, purchase behavior, to World of Warcraft and condom usage. Many regressions and latent-models and collaborative filters later, they all have one thing in common: the data has to be high-signal and low-noise. Said in another way, we have to know all of the relevant actions and at the same time filter out actions that are not relevant.

To put it in an example: in a cookie-centric world, an advertiser typically have about 10%-25% of the data. This means if I visited 100 sites this morning, they know about 10-15 of them. How high of a signal is that? How accurately can they predict what I’m trying to do?

In Real Life

Simple intents and meta intents inform one-another. We can derive simple-intents from meta-intents to guide users down to specific paths, and we can observe users’ simple-intents to derive meta-intents. But these 2 operations require different amounts of efforts. “Meta-to-simple” can be achieved almost automatically (mostly driven by algorithms), “simple-to-meta” is much more manual (data scientists or analysts validating assumptions on top of hadoop clusters). On by the way, it’s not obvious what those meta intents are so the assumptions are hard to make. Think the book Freakonomics.

From a cold-start, since you don’t have enough data to study any patterns of simple intents, ‘meta-to-simple’ is the only approach. There might still be room to use public data sets to generate meta-intents, but that’s a timed window as data science becomes commoditized over time. A data-driven product needs to have enough data science DNA in-house to continually experiment with new assumptions, and that’s how you build true advantages that no one else can copy.

There are a lot more topics to think about, like personal profile and short-term vs. long-term intent. We’ll talk about that in another post.

Brainstorming vs. Casual Conversations

Brainstorming is an integral part of the creative process, and it’s especially true for software/product design.

The New Yorker published a great article this week titled “Group Think: The Brainstorming Myth”. The article tries to prove that “brainstorming” is not as efficient as “casual conversations”, mainly because it discourages criticism. Also see the linkbate on Hacker News “Brainstorming Doesn’t Really Work”.

The author makes great points about some downsides of brainstorming, backing it up with experiments and data. For example, the 2003 UC Berkeley experiment suggests that, groups who arrive to results through a “debate” process is often more productive than groups who use a “brainstorm” process, even though at times debating is unpleasant. On a slightly tangential topic, the author also brings up the point that “unfamiliarity” can increase productivity. (Backed by the Broadway production experiment conducted by Brian Uzzi at Northwestern) The article goes through many successful examples of modern work space setups that encourage casual conversations between multiple disciplines.

I totally disagree with what the linkbate suggests. (Although the article itself is quite interesting) Brainstorming and casual conversation have very different roles in the creative process. The points presented in the article are all valid, but the comparison is inappropriate. In a modern-day work environment, we need both.

Brainstorming is an organized activity. While it’s difficult to administor (therefore most brainstorming sessions are pretty poorly ran), it’s quite effective if implemented right. Here is why:

  • It gets all the shitty ideas out of your system. Everyone has them, it doesn’t matter how smart/creative you are. Getting all the shitty ideas out of your head frees more mental space for you to focus on the good ones.
  • It’s highly collaborative. It’s difficult to have a 5-way casual conversation. But having 5 different perspectives is super valuable. Sometimes 1 small idea changes the whole game.
  • Most brainstorming sessions involve Whiteboards. This is good. Laying things out visually can again, free up more energy to focus on the hard problems.
  • Breath-first vs. depth-first. For those who are not familiar with graph theory, BFS means exploring all of the adjacent points first, and DFS means go as deep as possible on one idea before exploring other ideas. Brainstorming tends to be on the BFS side, and that’s important especially at the early stage of a product.

I’m personally a huge fan of casual conversations. It’s a pressure-free and natural way to refine ideas and solve problems from other angles. These mini sessions can be extremely productive, but it’s kind of a hit-or-miss. To maximize the probablility of productive casual conversations here at Hyperpublic, we essentially sit in one big circle with the snack table in the center. Some of our best work come from casual conversations. Coffee trips is another good source of interesting discussions. When you are solving a technical problem, being able to talk to someone else while the problem is fresh in your head can be very productive.

Brainstorm and casual conversation are both important. They compliment each other in various ways, and the right practice of both can increase our productivity by leaps and bounds.

apkfrlegends.com igram.dev